Floods

Precipitation, air temperature, VPD, and PAR have increased significantly in the east coast. First there is a decline in ET and then the recent increase in ET in Harvard Forest, significant increase in annual PET, nongrowing season PET, and ET. The increase in annual PET is due to an increase in nongrowing season PET.

The reduction in evapotranspiration due to reduced forested land also caused a substantial rise in summer and winter storm runoff under the 2100 scenario. In addition to changes in water balance, TSS yield at the watershed outlet increased by 54% in 2100. The sediment and nutrient yields in the downstream region were generally higher in the downstream Concord River basin than in the upstream Assabet and Sudbury basins.

The SWAT-MODFLOW coupled model approach was applied at large spatio-temporal scale to study the cumulative effects of changing precipitation patterns, groundwater withdrawals, and forest evapotranspiration to improve projections of the future of lake levels and water availability in agricultural regions.